Tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait have been increasing recently. Internally, this is because of the history between China and Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, which has a proclivity for desinicization, is provoking severe political and military conflict with the Chinese. Additionally, the U.S. and China are using Taiwan as leverage to seek hegemony in the region, and other countries are having to choose between China and Taiwan due to the political nature of the cross-strait relations. The United States is pressuring China through partnerships with Taiwan and other allied states, while China continues to take aggressive action such as entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

On August 2, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan increased tensions. Until recently, the U.S. had refrained from sending high-ranking officials to Taiwan since the U.S. and China established diplomatic ties in 1979. Nancy Pelosi is third in line to succeed President Biden. Biden's administration was concerned about Chinese backlash against the U.S. over Pelosi’s visit, but the trip went ahead. As soon as Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, she posted a statement on Twitter saying, “Our delegation’s visit to Taiwan honors America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy.” Pelosi also met President Tsai. At the meeting, the Taiwanese president awarded Mrs. Pelosi the Order of Propitious Clouds, calling her “Taiwan’s most devoted friend.”

After Mrs. Pelosi departed Taiwan to visit South Korea, China announced that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct large-scale military exercises, including the firing of live ammunition, in six areas inside Taiwan’s ADIZ. The PLA designated areas in which civil aircraft was prohibited to fly, announcing this on NOTAM (Notice to Airmen). In addition, the PLA launched short-range ballistic missiles near the waters of Taiwan. Consequently, some flights from Korea and Japan heading to Taiwan or Southeast Asia were canceled or delayed.

Before Mrs. Pelosi visited Taiwan, the Chinese government announced it would not sit idly by. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a serious provocation, accusing Washington of breaking the status quo and interfering in China’s internal affairs. Additionally, Hu Xijin, former chief editor and now a commentator for the Global Times, said, "China threatens to shoot Nancy Pelosi’s plane down if she visits Taiwan.” China thinks U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s affairs can harm its vital interests, forcing China to take aggressive action. Despite these warnings, China failed to stop Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. Accordingly, Chinese citizens raised criticism of the government for only threatening America but not doing anything, referring to the old Soviet maxim ‘China’s last warning,’ which refers to warnings without real consequences.

China's military action halted on August 7, but the conflict over Taiwan has not diminished. At a bilateral meeting between the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on September 23, during the 77th U.N. General Assembly session, Blinken urged Beijing to stop its hostile military action against Taiwan, saying the U.S. respects the one-China principle. Mr. Blinken’s statement means that the U.S. is aware of China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South/East China Sea but also means the U.S. seeks no change in current circumstances. Foreign Minister Wang Yi pressed the U.S. not to make remarks that seem to encourage Taiwan's independence and separatist movements, saying, "The U.S. only supports 'one China' with words, but their actual actions are the opposite”.

The imminent U.S. 2022 midterm elections and China’s 20th National People’s Congress make it difficult for the countries’ leaders to resolve the tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Even though it is hard to resolve due to economic and political complexities, at the September 23 meeting between Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Wang, both sides agreed on a provisional agenda for a significant agreement as the first face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping will be held at the Bali G20 Global Summit in November. Therefore, attention now focuses on the upcoming discussions between the two leaders at this summit.